|
CCLR 3|2009 | Stakeholder-based Scenarios for Post-2012 Climate Policy |
143 |
Stakeholder-based Scenarios for Post-2012
Climate Policy: A Participatory Approach
Ronal Gainza-Carmenates, J. Carlos Altamirano-Cabrera, Philippe Thalmann
and J. Luis Carrasco-Terceros*
We performed a study to define the key elements of feasible global climate policy scenarios
for the post-2012 UNFCCC regime by contacting – through a series of questionnaires
– 149 stakeholders involved in climate-change discussions. We applied a Multiple
Correspondence Analysis to the results. We then classified the stakeholders’ views into
three main groups which we associate with scenarios for post-2012 climate policy.
Further, we identified three points with wide consensus among the stakeholders: (i) 2013
is the most likely starting point for the next climate agreement, (ii) flexibility mechanisms
will most probably be pursued, and (iii) technology and financial transfers to
developing countries are likely to be used as incentives for these countries to undertake
a more meaningful climate policy. We found that the type of target for the United States
largely determined the type of scenario the stakeholders’ envisaged for the post-2012 climate
regime. Finally, we can associate stakeholders with a certain scenario taking into
consideration their experience in climate change negotiations.
* Ronal Gainza-Carmenates, PhD Candidate, Environmental Economics,
Research Group on the Economics and Management of the
Environment, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Lausanne; J. Carlos
Altamirano-Cabrera, Senior Researcher, Research Group on the
Economics and Management of the Environment, Swiss Federal Institute
of Technology, Lausanne; Philippe Thalmann, Professor of Economics
of the Natural and Built Environment, Director of the Institute
of Urban and Regional Sciences, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology,
Lausanne; J. Luis Carrasco-Terceros, MSc Candidate, Environmental
Sciences and Engineering at the Research Group on the Economics
and Management of the Environment, Swiss Federal Institute
of Technology, Lausanne. We would like to thank the 149 participating
stakeholders in this exploratory study for the time spent and for
care taken in answering each question. We also appreciate the
advice given by Yves Pedrazzini, sociologist at the Urban Sociology
Laboratory at EPFL, during the design of the questionnaires. Further,
we thank the editors for their useful comments, corrections and suggestions
on our paper. Finally, this research was carried out with the
financial support of the European F/P6 project TOCSIN (Technology-
Oriented Cooperation and Strategies in India and China: Reinforcing
in EU Dialogue with Developing Countries on Climate Change
Mitigation, EU044287), and the Swiss NCCR-Climate program.